Expectations for North Korea and their USA summit

This very timely survey from @Nifty looks at the Korean peninsula situation, and shows Japanese very interested, but little expectation of change.

I too share the general views expressed here; I want something positive to happen, but I’m not sure it will, especially since we are talking about a heartless and corrupt dictator surrounded with sycophants who would be happy to see the destruction of American democracy, and Kim is no better. The summit is turning into no more than a TV spectacle; “maximum pressure” has been dropped from the American lexicon, and rather than expecting results, it is now a “process”, and the summit seems now to be no more than a social get-to-know-you session.

Furthermore, Trump will be coming from a G6+1 meeting where he’ll be actively disliked and out of his depth, so no doubt the Kim side will exploit that with much buttering up and flat-out bribery, as that worked for China. My prediction for an outcome will be the continuation of North Korean claims and apparent actions towards denuclearisation but without inspections, whereas USA will draw down troop numbers in South Korea, a McDonalds in Pyongyang and the renaming of the Trump Ryugyong Hotel.

Research results

Q1: Do you think the meetings between North and South Korea will lead to peace? (Sample size=2,375)

Not change	79.0%
Lead to peace	13.0%
Depart from the road to peace	8.0%

Q2: How interested are you in the North Korea-USA summit planned for the 12th of June 2018? (Sample size=2,375)

Very interested	27.8%
Somewhat interested	44.6%
Not that interested	19.7%
Not interested at all	7.9%

Q3: Do you think the North Korea-USA summit will take place as planned? (Sample size=2,375)

Will be postponed	28.8%
Will be cancelled	24.4%
Will take place as scheduled	23.2%
Don’t know	23.6%

Q4: What do you think will be North Korea’s demands? (Sample size=2,375, multiple answer, top ten)

Rank		Percentage
1	Lessening, removal of sanctions	87.4%
2	Maintenance of the North Korean regime	72.5%
3	Removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism	56.0%
4	Assurance that USA does not pose a threat to North Korea	48.2%
5	Recognition as a nuclear power	36.9%
6	Withdrawl of USA forces in South Korea	34.3%
7	Cessation of USA-South Korea joint war games	28.6%
8	Strengthening of foreign investment into North Korea	20.1%
9	Signing of a peace treaty	16.9%
10	Revocation of the South Korea-USA alliance	12.5%

Q5: What do you think will be USA’s demands? (Sample size=2,375, multiple answer, top nine)

Rank		Percentage
1	Verified destruction of nuclear weapons	91.3%
2	Verified destruction of all nuclear facilities	73.0%
3	Destruction of long-range missiles	64.8%
4	Verified destruction of biological and chemical weapons	53.0%
5	Destruction of medium-range missiles	31.7%
6	Moving overseas of nuclear technicians	27.7%
7	Destruction of short-range missiles	23.9%
8	Return of Japanese abductees	21.5%
9	Human rights protection for North Korean citizens	20.5%

Q6: What do you think will be the outcome of the North Korea-USA summit? (Sample size=2,375)

Negotiations will not go well, but talking will continue	45.1%
Negotiations will not go well, and USA will up the economic, military pressue	33.9%
North Korea will agree to denuclearisation and soon allow inspectors to visit their facilities	5.3%
Don’t know	15.7%

Demographics

Between the 18th and 24th of May 2018 2,375 members of the @nifty monitor group completed a private internet-based questionnaire. No further demographics were provided.