The last poll was pretty useless, so here’s a better one from Nikkei Net. This one has a reader’s panel from which participants are randomly selected, so still not as good as we can get, and will probably over-represent the ABC1 professional class.

Performed between 20th and 22nd August 2005, 988 respondents.

Q1: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet

?

I support them 49%
I don’t support them 39%
Don’t know or can’t answer 12%

Q1SQ1: (If answered with “I support them”) Why do you support them? Multiple choice answer.

Because it’s the LDP cabinet 17%
Good policies 23%
International perspective 14%
Leadership strength 45%
Sense of stability 13%
Trustworthy character 20%
Clean 13%
Other reason 7%
Don’t know or can’t answer 4%

Q1SQ2: (If answered with “I don’t support them”) Why don’t you support them? Multiple choice answer.

Because it’s the LDP cabinet 17%
Bad policies 40%
No international perspective 17%
Lack of leadership strength 15%
No sense of stability 19%
Not trustworthy character 32%
Not clean 6%
Other reason 6%
Don’t know or can’t answer 5%

Q2: Which party do you support?

LDP 38%
DPJ 13%
New Komeito 3%
Communists 2%
SDP 2%
People’s New Party 1%
Others 0%
No party 35%
Don’t know or can’t answer 5%

Q2SQ: (if answered with “No party” or “Don’t know/can’t answer”) Which party do you look favourably upon?

LDP 18%
DPJ 15%
New Komeito 2%
Communists 2%
SDP 3%
People’s New Party 1%
Others 1%
No party 43%
Don’t know or can’t answer 14%

Adding the two answers together:

LDP 46%
DPJ 19%
New Komeito 4%
Communists 3%
SDP 3%
People’s New Party 1%
Others 1%
No party 17%
Don’t know or can’t answer 6%

Q3: Which of the following topics are important to you in this election?

Economic measures 29%
Fiscal reform 23%
Tax reform 26%
Adminstrative reform and deregulation 10%
Diplomatic and security concerns 16%
Pension and social security concerns 57%
Employment measures 19%
Education reform 19%
Political reform 15%
Post Office reform 29%
Country and local tax reform 15%
Regional development 14%
Constitution issues 9%
Environmental issues 18%
Law and order measures 15%
Others 1%
Don’t know or can’t answer 11%

Q4: Which one of the following is important to you when voting.

Character of the candidate 19%
How the candidate appeals to you 39%
The charm of each party’s leader 9%
Each party’s manifesto 20%
Don’t know or can’t answer 13%

Q5: Who do you plan to vote for in this election?

LDP 37%
DPJ 16%
New Komeito 3%
Communists 2%
SDP 2%
People’s New Party 1%
Others 1%
Don’t know or can’t answer 38%

Q6: Koizumi has not authorised to stand those LDP members that voted against Post Office privatisation in the last parliament, and is recommending supporting rival candidates. What do you think of this?

I support Koizumi 40%
Rival candidates is going too far 45%
Don’t know or can’t answer 15%

Q7: Regarding the Post Office reforms, from the viewpoint of Post Office reform, which opinion do you support?

Privatisation according to Koizumi’s opinion 44%
Keep public as per the DPJ’s opinion, and reduce the scope of savings and life insurance 22%
Keep it public just as it is 18%
Other 0%
Don’t know or can’t answer 16%

Q8: This election is also being fought around economic revitalisation. Regarding raising the consumption tax rate, what do you think?

Thinking of the current economic state, we cannot stop it 16%
We cannot stop due to the condition of pension funding etc 29%
We should maintain the current rate 33%
We should get rid of consumption tax 9%
Other 1%
Don’t know or can’t answer 11%

Q9: Each party’s manifesto contains various foreign policy topics. Which foreign policy themes should take priority?

Strengthen the alliance with the USA 14%
Improve relations with China, South Korea and other neighbouring countries 50%
Getting a permanent seat at the UN Security Council 13%
Resolve the Northern Territories problem 16%
Resolve the North Korean nuclear and kidnapping problems 55%
Rapid return of the SDF from Iraq 27%
Global environmental issues 38%
Others 0%
Don’t know or can’t answer 13%

The demographic breakdown of the respondants is as follows:

Sex

Male 44%
Female 56%
Unclear 0%

Age

20-29 9%
30-39 16%
40-49 18%
50-59 20%
60-69 18%
70-79 17%
Refused to answer 2%

Employment status

Farmer 3%
Employee (private, public or teacher) 46%
Full-time housewife 21%
Self-employed 10%
Student 1%
Unemployed (or retired) 16%
Refused to answer 2%

Comparing with the previous poll, you can see that the LDP:DPJ balance is 3:1 here rather than almost 1:1 in the other self-selecting poll. From other reports on TV, this seems to be a far more accurate reflection on the real situation. New Komeito is very low, but their strengths are people embarrassed to answer in public, their pester power at getting the vote out, and voting alliances with the LDP, so expect a figure closer to 15% once the votes are counted.

I am surprised about Post Office privatisation, but in my defence I know very little on the topic, and what I have heard has mostly come from a left-wing-leaning (US-style knee-jerkers; being left-wing myself, I find the US use of the term embarrassing) mailing list I am on.


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