世論 What Japan Thinks

As I work in the Osaka area, the outcome of the Osaka prefectural governor election (this Sunday 27th January 2008) will have some effect on me, and with some guy off the telly as the front-runner, I sincerely hope he won’t turn out to be another Hideo Higashikokubaru (Sonomanma Higashi) and appear on the box every night. In his defense, I saw that over the first year of his governorship he has been credited with giving the local economy a 100 billion yen (1 billion US dollar) boost

The first figure that the report from the Yomiuri Shimbun picked up on was the intention to vote. A healthy two in three said they would definitely turn out, with slightly more men that women saying they would vote. By age group, 78% of the over-seventies would definitely be voting, with 69% of those in their fifties would also definitely vote. However, only 43% of those in their twenties had definite plans, although another 49% said they’d try to vote, making 92% in total of all young people who might participate in the vote.
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Although I mostly pick the silly surveys from goo Ranking, they do occasionally cover serious subjects, with this recent one on expectations for Japan in the future, specifically what people think politicians should be putting some effort into.

Demographics

Over the 21st and 22nd of November 2007 1,101 members of the goo Research monitor panel completed a private internet-based questionnaire. 50.7% of the sample was female, 6.2% in their teens, 15.4% in their twenties, 30.2% in their thirties, 27.1% in their forties, 11.0% in their fifties, and 10.3% aged sixty or older. Note that the score reported is the relative number of votes each choice got, not the percentage of the sample that chose each option.

Although the title of the survey page from goo Ranking specifically includes the word politics, number 5 is rather non-political, or if it is meant to be political, Singapore springs to mind as a country that regulates the manners of the citizens, which may not be a very good example to follow. On the other hand, a lot of existing legislation gets ignored as penalties are either minor or non-existant, so perhaps this is a call for more enforcement of smoking in non-smoking zones, switching off mobiles when required, etc?

I think that addressing issues regarding worker abuse (and self-abuse) where unpaid overtime is the norm, by giving some teeth to unions; indeed I’d like to see unions being penalised for not bothering to stand up against unpaid overtime! What would you like to see from the politicians?
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Recently goo Ranking, a Japan public opinion survey organisation, posted the results of a look at the political world from a rather interesting angle. The respondents were asked to choose their most good-looking world politician or leader in a poll conducted between the 25th and 27th of September 2007. Note that this poll drew its sample from the goo Research monitor pool, so there would be little or no opportunity for ballot stuffing. 100 points are awarded to the top vote-getter, and the other scores are the percentage of votes of the winner that each of the rest received. By sex, the votes were very similar, although Tony Blair won more female hearts than Shintaro Ishihara.

I find it surprising that Bill Clinton (or even Al Gore) doesn’t appear anywhere, however, and personally I’d have voted for Nelson Mandela, another curious omission.
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I’m personally not convinced that natsu-bate, fatigue brought on by the summer heat, really does exist as a diagnosable illness, or whether it is just another thing the Japanese like to complain about, just like stiff shoulders. Regardless of whether it is real or not, here comes another slighly incongruous double-header from goo Research, conducted in conjunction with the Yomiuri Shimbun, looking at both the upcoming upper house elections and the summer heat.

Demographics

Between the 22nd and 24th of June 2007 546 people in their teens to their thirties who were members of the goo Research monitor group completed an internet-based questionnaire. The group was split 50:50 male and female, and 37% attended school or university, 26% were full-time company employees, and 13% were homemakers. More detailed information was not presented.

I’m not particularly surprised by Junichiro Koizumi coming tops of the poll, and Abe barely ranking, but I am surprised by the foreign secretary Taro Aso coming second, but after his recent Alzheimer’s comment, I wonder if he would drop out of the rankings were the survey repeated today.
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Watching my favourite television program tonight, Bakushou Mondai’s Hiraku Oota “If I were Prime Minister”, they did a quick street poll amongst 100 typical Shibuya high school schoolgirls to see how well they recognised the faces of the current and the previous Prime Ministers of Japan. only 44 out of 100 could get Abe san’s first and last names correct, yet 94 out of 100 remembered Jun chan.

It’s been quite a while since I’ve looked at a political opinion poll, so with the recent changes at the top with Junichiro Koizumi being replaced by Shinzo Abe, and with North Korea being a tad unreasonable at the moment, I think this would be a good time to present a translation of a survey of public opinion by the Yomiuri Shimbun on the new cabinet and the recent trip to China and Korea.
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goo Ranking released the results of their latest ranking questionnaire, conducted over two days towards the end of August. An unspecified number of goo users replied to the question of what is your lasting impression of the Junichiro Koizumi premiership.

This departs from the usual fluff of these ranking surveys, but I cannot give any guarantee about how accurately the figures reflect true public opinion. As always, the score for each option is the percentage of the votes for the top answer. I’m impressed by Jun-chan’s Elvis impressions making ninth on the list, but disappointed that him dancing with his doppelganger Richard Gere didn’t get anywhere!

Additionally, I suspect that anything directly related to him backing Horiemon’s election campaigning was disallowed due to the ongoing court case.
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According to a short article found on the Yomiuri Shimbun’s web site, they performed a face-to-face interview-based opinion poll in the middle of November to discover people’s attitude towards national politicians and politics. I wonder how much of the negative attitudes towards politicians was fired by the election of Taizo Sugimura and his all-too-honest youthful enthusiasm for the freebies awaiting him? Perhaps even the mostly positive image of Horiemon was soured by people realising that the whole business of Koizumi’s assassins was just too cynical a ploy?

The headline figure was that 69% felt there were too many Diet members, versus 24% who thought it was just about right, and 2% wanted more representitives.

Regarding respect for national politicians, 76% felt it had decreased from in the past, and 72% felt that the convictions (of the political, not the criminal, kind!) of the politicians had also decreased. When asked about their image of the current crop of Diet members, the top answer was “No convictions” at 38%, next being “Self-preservation” at 37%, “Acting in their own self interests” at 36%, then “Bias towards special interest groups or industries” and “Cannot understand popular sentiment” at 27% for each. All of the top ranked answers were negative images.

Only a third trusted politicians, whereas two-thirds did not, and with just 2% don’t knows, there are serious issues that the political machine needs to address to recapture the hearts of the person on the street.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is still doing well in the polls, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun’s survey. Whether or not any of this popularity rubs off on Bush when they meet in Kyoto tonight, and whether or not the two of them will address the US bases in Okinawa (around 72% oppose the relocation issue according to another recent poll) remains to be seen.

On the 12th and 13th of this month, the Yomiuri carried out a survey across the whole country (of how many people is not noted), and found that support for the cabinet was running at 61.0%, 1.6% percentage points up from the last survey on the 15th and 16th of last month. Those who did not support the cabinet was at 30.4%, down 2.0% points from last time.

As for the priority issues he should address, top was pensions and other social security system reforms at 63%, the third time in a row that this was top. Next was economic measures, at 59%, tax system reforms at 31%, child-rearing support and other birth rate decline counter-measures at 29%, and employment measures also at 29%.

One of the structural reforms that Koizumi’s cabinet wants to perform, public employee system reform, was chosen by only 18% of the respondents as a priority issue, 10th of the 17 options presented to the interviewees.

Support for the governing LDP was measured at 41.6%, just 0.4% down from last time, whilst the opposition DPJ was down 1.5% to 11.9%, and those holding no party allegiances was up 2.1% at 38.7%.

Better late than never, the Asahi Shimbun conducted a telephone survey on an unspecified number of people on the 22nd and 23rd regarding attitudes to the general election a month and a half ago, and discovered that most people felt it was a media election.

First, 52% thought the election was interesting, with 39% feeling it wasn’t. Those in their twenties found it especially interesting, with over 60% of that age group expressing that opinion. Perhaps this was due to all the coverage of Horiemon?

53% thought that media coverage of the election had either a great or somewhat of an effect on the outcome. For those who voted for the LDP, 63% felt the media had had an influence on the result. This is perhaps due to the coverage of Koizumi’s female assassins.

Regarding which medium people accesses the most for information, television was first with 51%, newspapers at 40%, and the internet a mere 4%. LDP voters favoured the TV more, at 56%, whereas DPJ supporters preferred newspapers, at 48%. Women also got their information primarily from TV, at 58% versus 34% for newpapers, whereas men were at 44% for TV, 46% for newspapers. For those under 50, TV was the primary media; over 50 and it was newspapers.

As to whether the media concentrated on particular parties or constituencies, 50% held that impression, versus 41% who did not. 60% of DPJ voters held that impression, but I wonder how much of that is to do with being on the losing side? For LDP supporters, only 46% felt bias in the coverage.

Regarding when people decided who to vote for, 68% decided over a week before the election, 23% decided with less than a week to go, and 8% on the day of the vote itself.

Finally, 50% said they support the current Koizumi cabinet, and 33% do not. This is down from 55% for and 30% against in a snap survey on the 17th and 18th after Koizumi visited the neo-nationalist Yasukuni shrine; perhaps the ramifications of his visit have started to sink in?