世論 What Japan Thinks

With another recent survey on earthquake preparedness (untranslated by me) showing over two in three rather worried about The Big One hitting, this survey on earthquake early warnings presents a look at a different aspect of the same topic. The survey was conducted by JR Tokai Express Research Inc and published on the japan.internet.com web site.

Demographics

On the 18th of August 2008 331 members of the JR Tokai Express Research monitor group completed a private internet-based questionnaire. 84.3% of the sample were male (it said the survey was conducted with just internet users, but that’s an even heavier bias towards men than even their panels of employed people!), 4.8% in their twenties, 35.3% in their thirties, 44.7% in their forties, 12.4% in their fifties, 2.1% in their sixties, and 0.6% aged seventy or older.

The early warning system is not predictions of earthquakes, but instead sensors all over the country can detect an earthquake nearby, and since radio messages travel faster than the earthquake P and S waves, they basically radio ahead to warn that something nasty is coming, usually giving no more than 10 seconds warning, just enough time to dive under a handy table. As The Big One for Tokyo is predicted to likely occur under the city, it does seem rather pointless for the residents of that city.
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With much of Japan in ever-present danger of being wiped out by an earthquake, and with the recent launch of the earthquake early warning system, the Cabinet Office Japan decided to take a look at earthquake preparedness.

Demographics

Between the 4th and 14th of October 2007 3,000 adults from all over Japan were randomly selected. 1,757 of these took part in face-to-face interviews. Age and sex breakdown was not reported, although Cabinet Office surveys tend to have a more even age spread than other surveys.

If you live in Tokyo, the bad news is that the city is overdue being flattened by the big one; Nagoya is due to be hit by a tsunami, and Osaka will probably get the two for the price of one. We’ve actually just bought emergency kits; actually, it was stored up points from my credit card, so we spent it on two evacuation kits and a table-top stove. I don’t think we have a gas canister for that, though… We usually have a bath tub of water sitting around, but we’ve got a funny toilet that won’t flush when the electricity’s off. If the worst comes to the worst, we plan to evacuate to the next-door town; we live on the border between two, and across the line is a posh school that’s bound to have decent facilities and is slightly closer than our official emergency centre, a dingy, slightly falling down concrete shed.

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Over the first five days at the start of February, MyVoice asked their online monitor group about earthquakes.

Demographics

13,145 people successfully completed a private online questionnaire. 54% of the sample was female, 2% in their teens, 19% in their twenties, 40% in their thirties, 26% in their forties, and 13% in their fifties.

I’ve not (yet..) experienced a destructive earthquake, although living in the Kansai area I’ve heard lots of stories of the hardships resulting from the Great Hanshin-Akashi Earthquake of 1995. I’ve also visited the Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Institution (earthquake museum) in Kobe which has an extremely powerful recreation of the scenes during and after the earthquake. There is also a reference library there, which includes maps of all the active faults in Japan - the chances are probably rather high that your home too may be sitting rather close to a fault line. They also have survivors of the earthquake presenting various earthquake-related issues, from describing ground liquification to discussing emergency evacuation kit preparation, with translators on-hand to help out if need be.

Since I get a bit of traffic searching for it, I think I should explain the Japanese 震度, Shindo earthquake scale. Rather than report the magnitude as the key measure of the strengh of the tremor as in the Richter scale, the Shindo scale is used to present a more subjective, and more useful to the people affected by it, evaluation of the effects of the quake. The Shindo measures how one might actually experience the shake. 1 or 2 are barely perceptable wobbles, 3 is dishes rattling, 4 wakes you up and some things might dance off tabletops (this is about as high as I’ve experienced), 5弱, jaku, lower is books popping out of shelves, most things falling over, and perhaps a few cracks in cheaply built houses, 5強, kyou, upper is televisions and wardrobes (and perhaps you too) toppling, deformed doors and structural damage, 6弱, jaku, lower is dancing bookcases, 6強, kyou, upper is nearly everything breaking and falling over, and finally 7 is OH MY GOD WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE!
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With the 11th anniversary of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (Kobe and surrounding area) on 17th of January 1995 being today, I thought it would be appropriate to present this survey by the Japanese Government’s Cabinet Office regarding people’s opinions on earthquakes. Out of 10,000 people asked, 7,232 people completed questionnaires regarding earthquakes over a two week period at the end of September. Demographic information is available at the end of the survey. Note that for a change, because this was a personal interview-based survey the age spread is much broader than most of the internet-based polls I present. All questions were answered by all 7,232 respondents.

For the last few years, at least once every couple of months there has been a special on TV regarding earthquakes, covering in particular how everyone is going to die horribly when The Big One hits Tokyo. In amongst the tabloid sensationalism is, however, the occasional nugget of useful information. Two nights ago, for instance, they covered how to escape from a lift stuck between floors, then emergency toilets, including how much water is needed to flush a standard three-jobbie plus loo roll down to the nearest main sewer pipe (five litres to go 15 metres, in case you’re wondering and I’m remembering correctly).

This survey was taken before the Aneha scandal blew up, so perhaps if this survey was repeated today, the answers would be rather different.

Although the above-mentioned Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake happened before I came to Japan, I have talked to a number of people who were living in Kobe at the time, and almost everyone had some tale of personal or family-related disaster that really impressed upon me the human scale of the disaster. I recommend anyone with the opportunity to talk to someone from the area to sensitively enquire about their experiences.
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