世論 What Japan Thinks

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is still doing well in the polls, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun’s survey. Whether or not any of this popularity rubs off on Bush when they meet in Kyoto tonight, and whether or not the two of them will address the US bases in Okinawa (around 72% oppose the relocation issue according to another recent poll) remains to be seen.

On the 12th and 13th of this month, the Yomiuri carried out a survey across the whole country (of how many people is not noted), and found that support for the cabinet was running at 61.0%, 1.6% percentage points up from the last survey on the 15th and 16th of last month. Those who did not support the cabinet was at 30.4%, down 2.0% points from last time.

As for the priority issues he should address, top was pensions and other social security system reforms at 63%, the third time in a row that this was top. Next was economic measures, at 59%, tax system reforms at 31%, child-rearing support and other birth rate decline counter-measures at 29%, and employment measures also at 29%.

One of the structural reforms that Koizumi’s cabinet wants to perform, public employee system reform, was chosen by only 18% of the respondents as a priority issue, 10th of the 17 options presented to the interviewees.

Support for the governing LDP was measured at 41.6%, just 0.4% down from last time, whilst the opposition DPJ was down 1.5% to 11.9%, and those holding no party allegiances was up 2.1% at 38.7%.

Better late than never, the Asahi Shimbun conducted a telephone survey on an unspecified number of people on the 22nd and 23rd regarding attitudes to the general election a month and a half ago, and discovered that most people felt it was a media election.

First, 52% thought the election was interesting, with 39% feeling it wasn’t. Those in their twenties found it especially interesting, with over 60% of that age group expressing that opinion. Perhaps this was due to all the coverage of Horiemon?

53% thought that media coverage of the election had either a great or somewhat of an effect on the outcome. For those who voted for the LDP, 63% felt the media had had an influence on the result. This is perhaps due to the coverage of Koizumi’s female assassins.

Regarding which medium people accesses the most for information, television was first with 51%, newspapers at 40%, and the internet a mere 4%. LDP voters favoured the TV more, at 56%, whereas DPJ supporters preferred newspapers, at 48%. Women also got their information primarily from TV, at 58% versus 34% for newpapers, whereas men were at 44% for TV, 46% for newspapers. For those under 50, TV was the primary media; over 50 and it was newspapers.

As to whether the media concentrated on particular parties or constituencies, 50% held that impression, versus 41% who did not. 60% of DPJ voters held that impression, but I wonder how much of that is to do with being on the losing side? For LDP supporters, only 46% felt bias in the coverage.

Regarding when people decided who to vote for, 68% decided over a week before the election, 23% decided with less than a week to go, and 8% on the day of the vote itself.

Finally, 50% said they support the current Koizumi cabinet, and 33% do not. This is down from 55% for and 30% against in a snap survey on the 17th and 18th after Koizumi visited the neo-nationalist Yasukuni shrine; perhaps the ramifications of his visit have started to sink in?

[part 1] [part 2] [part 3]

NTV did a survey on a number of hot topics in the news right now – a lot of questions, but not much detail, so the exact meaning of some of the answers is up for debate. They carries out the survey from the 14th to 16th of this month, asking 1000 people but only getting 479 sets of replies, so it’s a bit of a small sample.

Q6: The Koizumi cabinet has re-submitted their Post Office privatisation bill for splitting it into four companies and has it passed into law. Do you support this establishment of the bill? (Bad, possibly wrong translation!)

Support it	61.8%
Don’t support it	26.9%
Don’t know, no answer	11.3%

Q7: Of the 13 former LDP members who voted against the Post Office privatisation proposals in July, 11 of them voted in favour this time. Do you support the actions of these 11 who changed their votes?

Support their actions	24.2%
Don’t support their actions	64.7%
Don’t know, no answer	11.1%

Q8: There is less than one year to go until Koizumi retires from leadership of the LDP. What would you most want him to accoplish during this time?

Resolve North Korea and kidnapping problems	17.5%
Civil service reform	8.4%
Financial and taxation reform	20.5%
Public financial institutions merger or abolishment	3.3%
Pensions review	42.2%
Others	4.6%
Don’t know, no answer	3.6%

Q9: There are about 600 GSDF troops deployed in Samawah, Iraq until the 14th of December. Please tell me your opinion about the GSDP deployment.

Deployment should be extended	21.1%
Should withdraw in December	61.4%
Should withdraw now	13.8%
Don’t know, no answer	3.8%

Q10: On the 17th of October is the Yasukuni Shrine Autumn Festival, and there is the view that Koizumi may very well attend. Do you support Koizumi woshipping there?

Support him	47.6%
Don’t support him	45.5%
Don’t know, no answer	6.9%

A slight diversion – the Yasukuni Shrine has perhaps two aspects to it. The first is the enshrinement of Class A war criminals, which is the topic that most people seem to focus upon, but to me it seems very much to hinge on a technicality or two, and as such does not particulary interest me, especially as the other aspect is that the shrine is run by, apparently, a bunch of right-wing militaristic nut jobs, not to put too fine a point on it. Friends who have visited have noted that the text of many of the exhibits, in both English and Japanese, glorify the Second World War and the earlier East Asian adventures whilst glossing over, if not outright ignoring the evil that was committed in the process. A visit to their English homepage, for instance, reveals unapologetic nonsense like this, from their FAQ:

There were also 1,068 “Martyrs of Showa” who were cruelly and unjustly tried as war criminals by a sham-like tribunal of the Allied forces (United States, England, the Netherlands, China and others).

Can you really imagine a German leader, say, visiting a church that had a sign talking about how Goering was unfairly accused, or even a British leader visiting (in a not really official, honest, Guv kind of way) that statue of Bomber Harris near Trafalgar Square?

[part 1] [part 2] [part 3]

[part 1] [part 2] [part 3]

NTV did a survey on a number of hot topics in the news right now – a lot of questions, but not much detail, so the exact meaning of some of the answers is up for debate. They carries out the survey from the 14th to 16th of this month, asking 1000 people but only getting 479 sets of replies, so it’s a bit of a small sample.

Q1: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet?

Yes	62.2%
No	29.4%
Don’t know, no answer	8.4%

Q2: For those answering YES in Q1, why do you support his cabinet?

Because I have expections for the cabinet members	2.7%
Because I can trust Koizumi’s character	21.5%
Because it’s the cabinet of the party I suppose	12.1%
Because I have expections for the policies	11.4%
Because I can expect reform	21.8%
Because there’s no-one else to do the job	21.8%
No particular reason	5.7%
Others	2.4%
Don’t know, no answer	0.7%

Q2: For those answering NO in Q1, why do you not support his cabinet?

Because I have no expections for the cabinet members	9.2%
Because I can’t trust Koizumi’s character	29.1%
Because it’s not the cabinet of the party I suppose	19.2%
Because I don’t have expections for the policies	22.0%
Because there’s no leadership	1.4%
No particular reason	4.3%
Others	13.5%
Don’t know, no answer	1.4%

Q4: Please tell me which party you support. If you don’t support any party, choose which you have strong feelings for.

LDP	46.1%
DPJ	19.0%
New Komeito	4.0%
Communists	2.7%
SDP	2.9%
People’s New Party	0.0%
New Party Nippon	0.2%
New Party Daichi	0.2%
Others	0.4%
I don’t support any part	21.9%
Don’t know, no answer	2.5%

Q5: The DPJ have selected Maehara as their new leader. Do you support Maehara’s leadership of the DPJ?

Greatly support	17.5%
Support to some extent	37.6%
Don’t really support	32.4%
Don’t support at all	9.6%
Don’t know, no answer	2.9%

[part 1] [part 2] [part 3]

Finally what I have been searching for, a bit late, but nonetheless, it’s the only survey I could find on the topic. DIMSDRIVE performed a public opinion poll on the two days right after the recent general election, questioning 3,598 people from all around the country in an internet-based survey. The source of the pool of respondents is not clear, however. 45.5% were male, 54.5% female, from all around the country. The Kanto area seems, however, a bit over-represented: 56.4% of panel lived there whereas the actual population is closer to 30% of the total Japanese population. This bias to urbanised areas might affect the Post Office privatisation opinions expressed later on.

Q: Did you vote in the election?

Yes	81.7%
No	18.3%

Note that the actual turnout was 67.5%, so perhaps a good number of the non-voters refused to participate in this survey too. The age and sex breakdown of voters is also interesting: 23.2% of the 20-29 year-old men didn’t vote, and 33.0% of the women of the same age didn’t. In the 40-49 years old bracket, both sexes are at just under 14%, and the 60 years old and over category has a mere 3% of non-participants in democracy.

Q: What was the most important policy issue for you?

Post office privatisation	32.9%
Pensions and benefits	22.7%
Political reform	7.7%
Education or population shrinkage	7.5%
Tax reform	7.0%
Economic measures	5.9%
Constitutional revision	1.6%
Foreign affairs	1.3%
Job creation measures	0.9%
Environmental problems	0.5%
Others	3.1%
Don’t know	1.0%
No important policies	8.1%

Regarding pensions and welfare, not too surprisingly the older the respondents got the more important it became! Some of the other issues that were listed as important were “fiscal issues”, “administration selection” (I think this means choosing the correct leaders for the country), “amakudari“, “anti-war”, “expressing tangible figures” (not sure what this one refers to), “restructuring”, etc.

Q: For those who voted, did you read any manifestos or other political promise documents? (Sample size=2,939)

Carefully read them	13.1%
Skim read them	36.1%
Glanced at them	20.7%
Had them but never read them	1.4%
Didn’t even receive one	28.7%

Q: For those who didn’t vote, why didn’t you vote? (Sample size=659)

I thought I wanted to vote, but there was no candidate or party (…I could support?)	31.0%
It was inconvenient, so I couldn’t go to the polling station	29.9%
I think it’s just the same whoever wins	22.0%
I don’t think my single vote makes any difference	19.6%
No interest in politics	12.9%
I didn’t know much about the candidates and parties	10.6%
Too far, or I was ill, etc, so I couldn’t go to the polling station	8.5%
I want to vote for policies, but not for parties	7.4%
I’m not on the electoral roll	0.5%
Others	9.0%
No particular reason	5.0%

Some of the other reasons recorded were “because it was raining”, “I didn’t study enough to be able to vote”, “it was predicted to be an LDP walk-over anyway”, “Too much noise about Post Office privatisation”, “I couldn’t choose who to vote for”, “I’m posted far away from home”, “I forgot”, “I lost my voting card”, etc.

Q: Do you think Post Office privatisation is necessary? (Sample size=3,598)

Rather necessary	28.5%
Fairly necessary	36.3%
Can’t say one way or the other	20.8%
Not really necessary	7.9%
Not necessary at all	5.9%
Difficult to say	0.6%

For those who voted, the opinions on privatisation were in line with the table above, with an extra 3% viewing it as rather essential, and a corresponding 3% less sitting on the fence. However, for non-voters, these two figures were basically reversed, with only 16.7% strongly favouring it and 32.2% undecided.

Strangely, I thought, looking at the age breakdown, the older one gets the more in favour of privatisation they become. Only about 20% of the youngest age group saw it as rather necessary, yet 45% of the pensioner age group favoured it. As age increased, the rather necessary fraction steadily increased at the expense of the undecided fraction only. Given that the older one gets the more one may rely on the services of the Post Office, and given some of the (basically untrue) stories about wholescale branch closure, I find this a result worthy of further study.

Q: Did your interest in politics increase during this election period?

	All (N=3,598)	Voters (N=2,939)	Non-voters (N=659)
Increased rather a lot	14.5%	16.1%	7.3%
Increased a bit	33.8%	34.9%	28.7%
Not really changed	48.4%	45.7%	59.9%
Decreased a bit	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%
Decreased a lot	1.9%	1.6%	3.0%

Looking at the age and sex breakdown, the only significant figure seems to be that over half the old ladies are now significantly more interested in politics, although it is worthy of note that there was only 37 women over 60 who took part in the survey, so these figures may be biased by the small group.

Well, we’ve had the ultimate test of public opinion (more analysis of the numbers later) and Koizumi led the LDP and New Komeito alliance to win over two-thirds of the seats in the new lower house, knocking out half of the people kicked out of the party for opposing the Post Office privatisation, the very issue that brought on the election in the first place.

The Japan-based foreigner (and ex-foreigner!) communities are buzzing right now, much of it filled with humbug about how could the Japanese be so stupid as to vote for the LDP, with the implied “…but we, of course, know better”. I’m looking right now for exit polls on why people chose to vote, but the implications that people have of it being a single-issue (PO privatisation) election does not mesh with previous polls which indicated that voters were getting less interested in the PO issues.

According to the exit polls, the 20.2% who described themselves as unaffiliated voters voted by a small majority (42% versus 35% averaged over the two votes) for the main DPJ opposition party but with the high numbers of affiliated voters, this was not enough to alter the results.

Koizumi’s main slogan was “Don’t stop the reforms!” We’ll see how he sticks to these through the life of the parliament. However, he is, according to LDP rules, going to reach the end of his term as leader next year, and will not be eligible to stand again, so will his reforms live on with a new leader?

Looking at reports of the exit polls we can begin to build up a picture of what really happened at the ballot boxes. The main unknowns in the run-up to the election were the undecided and the unaffiliated voters, about 40% and 45% (although of course there would be a lot of people in both camps!) respectively going into the last week of campaigning.

Of those surveyed, 20.2% described themselves as unaffiliated voters. From that group, 32.6% voted for the LDP versus 38.2% for the DPJ in the proportional representation vote, and 37.4% versus 45.5% in the direct elections.

In the last lower house election exit poll, unaffiliates split 21.4% versus 56.5% in the PR vote, and 27.0% versus 53.0% for the direct seats, LDP versus DPJ.

Note, one reason for the votes for the main parties being higher in the direct election is that not all of the minor parties put candidates up in all constituencies. Unfortunately this report does not suggest any reasons for the change in support since the last time.

New Komeito supporters voted 72.3% for the LDP in the direct elections, showing that in seats where there is no New Komeito candidate (over 90% of them) the electoral pact is still going strong.

In the 33 seats where the Post Office privatisation rebels stood, LDP supporters preferred the official candidate, 55.1% versus 33.4% for the rebels, although the rebels still won in half the seats. Previous opinion polls had indicated the official candidates were on 41% versus 33%, indicating that the undecided had chosen to back Koizumi’s choice.

With just a week to go to the election, for the proportional representation vote, 80% of the unaffiliated voters are still to decide, according to the Asahi Shimbun’s poll. First, the basic numbers:

Q: Which party do you want to vote for in the proportional representation vote?

LDP	23%
DPJ	16%
New Komeito	6%
Communists	4%
SDP	3%
People’s New Party, New Party Nippon	0%
Not decided	38%

Q: (For those with no party affiliation only) Which party do you want to vote for in the proportional representation vote?

LDP	7%
DPJ	8%
New Komeito	2%
SDP	1%
Not decided	67%
No answer/don’t know	15%

Still a lot of votes to play for here! On another note, Post Office privatisation has dropped 11% to 39% as being an important topic, perhaps because everyone’s got sick to death hearing about it.

From the Tokyo Shimbun, I see the following opinion poll has been published.

3,600 people from all over the country were interviewed by telephone for the poll. The question was “Which party’s candidate will you vote for?”

For the LDP, 43.4% said they would be voting for them in the single-member constituency vote, around the same percentage as in the last lower house election in 2003. In the proportional representation race, 40.9% said they would, up from 35.0% in the last election.

For the DPJ, 23.4% will vote for them in the single-member constituencies, and 24.2% in the proportional representation vote. This second figure is down over 13 percentage points from the last election.

For the other parties, New Komeito is up in the single-member constituencies, but drastically down in the proportional representation vote. The communists and the SDP are down in both votes. The People’s
New Party and New Party Nippon register less than 1% in both votes.

10-20% are still to decide which party to support in both votes.

Next, 51.0% want an LDP-led adminstration versus 34.8% wanting the DPJ. This preference for the DPJ is greatly increased (compared to what, it is does not say!)

53.9% support the present (well, ex-) cabinet, versus 39.0% who do not. As for the upper house rejecting the Post Office privatisation bill, 51.1% said it wasn’t a good thing, versus 38.6% who approved of it.

Significant differences between male and female opinion were noted.

49.7% of men want an LDP-led adminstration versus 39.1% wanting the DPJ, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. For women, 52.3% want the LDP versus 30.4% for the DPJ, a difference of 21.9 percentage points,
clearly indicating that the DPJ find it difficult to attract support from women.

This is a very detailed survey, but again there seems to be a lack of analysis of the New Komeito position (can you tell I’m an NK supporter by my repeated harping on about them?), and the electoral pact between them and the LDP. I should track down some historical opinion polls to find out how the opinion polls tracked the NK position versus the actual result last election.

The last poll was pretty useless, so here’s a better one from Nikkei Net. This one has a reader’s panel from which participants are randomly selected, so still not as good as we can get, and will probably over-represent the ABC1 professional class.
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