世論 What Japan Thinks

Personally, I’ve always thought it was a daft idea, and never knew why companies are pushing it so hard over here in Japan. The last thing you want from a mobile is for the battery to run out, and trying to follow the action on a tiny screen with a non-existant aerial seems like a lesson in frustration. This survey seems to back up my opinions. It was carried out at the end of July, amongst 2,156 people from a private internet survey group, 55.1% male, predominantly under 50 years old.
Read the rest of this entry »

Well, we’ve had the ultimate test of public opinion (more analysis of the numbers later) and Koizumi led the LDP and New Komeito alliance to win over two-thirds of the seats in the new lower house, knocking out half of the people kicked out of the party for opposing the Post Office privatisation, the very issue that brought on the election in the first place.

The Japan-based foreigner (and ex-foreigner!) communities are buzzing right now, much of it filled with humbug about how could the Japanese be so stupid as to vote for the LDP, with the implied “…but we, of course, know better”. I’m looking right now for exit polls on why people chose to vote, but the implications that people have of it being a single-issue (PO privatisation) election does not mesh with previous polls which indicated that voters were getting less interested in the PO issues.

According to the exit polls, the 20.2% who described themselves as unaffiliated voters voted by a small majority (42% versus 35% averaged over the two votes) for the main DPJ opposition party but with the high numbers of affiliated voters, this was not enough to alter the results.

Koizumi’s main slogan was “Don’t stop the reforms!” We’ll see how he sticks to these through the life of the parliament. However, he is, according to LDP rules, going to reach the end of his term as leader next year, and will not be eligible to stand again, so will his reforms live on with a new leader?

Looking at reports of the exit polls we can begin to build up a picture of what really happened at the ballot boxes. The main unknowns in the run-up to the election were the undecided and the unaffiliated voters, about 40% and 45% (although of course there would be a lot of people in both camps!) respectively going into the last week of campaigning.

Of those surveyed, 20.2% described themselves as unaffiliated voters. From that group, 32.6% voted for the LDP versus 38.2% for the DPJ in the proportional representation vote, and 37.4% versus 45.5% in the direct elections.

In the last lower house election exit poll, unaffiliates split 21.4% versus 56.5% in the PR vote, and 27.0% versus 53.0% for the direct seats, LDP versus DPJ.

Note, one reason for the votes for the main parties being higher in the direct election is that not all of the minor parties put candidates up in all constituencies. Unfortunately this report does not suggest any reasons for the change in support since the last time.

New Komeito supporters voted 72.3% for the LDP in the direct elections, showing that in seats where there is no New Komeito candidate (over 90% of them) the electoral pact is still going strong.

In the 33 seats where the Post Office privatisation rebels stood, LDP supporters preferred the official candidate, 55.1% versus 33.4% for the rebels, although the rebels still won in half the seats. Previous opinion polls had indicated the official candidates were on 41% versus 33%, indicating that the undecided had chosen to back Koizumi’s choice.

The last two articles have been praising Sony just a bit too much, so here’s a survey, well sales figures anyway, for mobile phones in Japan

For the second quarter of this year, the sales by manufacturers of mobile phones for all networks in Japan was as follows:

Panasonic	18.3%
Sharp	16.6%
NEC	14.4%
Toshiba	12.7%
Others	38.0%

The total sales for the quarter was 10,650,000 handsets, down 3.2% from the same quarter last year. 3G handsets made up 74.9% of the total, with the 3G share predicted to be around 90% by the last quarter of the year.<

Sony don’t seem able to make a good mobile. They have their own scroll wheel-like interfaace, but it doesn’t seem to be that popular, and their current flagship, the Premini-II, is absolutely tiny (and the original even tinier), but since the majority of users are heavy emailers, the virtually unusable keyboard and the screen that requires squinting doesn’t sell very well.

Last month there was a survey on what users are doing with their PSPs. Once again, this is a report about a survey, so fuzzy numbers abound! The basic data – PSP users own an average of 3.1 titles (does this include bundled titles?), but only a tenth of the users own any UMD video disks, and round about a fifth have used the browser. 1000 users or people with family machines were surveyed in early August of this year.

Q: When did you buy your PSP?

Launch day! 2004/12/12	c. 10%
From 2004/12/13 to 2004/12/31	c. 35%
2005/1/1 to 2005/2/28	c. 30%
2005/3/1 to 2005/5/31	c. 25%
From 2005/6/1	Just over 10%

The largest collection of game software titles was 50 for males, 20 for females.

Regarding UMD video titles, 13.5% of males and 12.9% of females owned at least one. Over half those interviewed, male and female, owned no videos and had no plans to buy UMD any titles. However, for those who were interested in UMD video, movies were the most popular type of content, and over half planned to either buy or rent the forthcoming “Final Fantasy VII – Advent Children” CG movie.

Almost half the males, and almost a third of the females had bought Memory Stick Duos, but almost half of these owners hadn’t used the memory cards recently. Regarding the v2.0 firmware update that added the internet browser, released on July 27th, about a quarter of the males and just over a tenth of the females had upgraded. Half the women did not know the upgrade was being distributed, and (a different, I guess?) 30% had no plans to upgrade, mostly as they didn’t really use the PSP for anything other than games.

In addition to the PSP, 90% also had a PS2 at home, a little over 60% had a PS or PSone, just under half had a GameBoy Advance, and 35% a Nintendo DS.

Ahh, the power of the Sony brand!

Finally a short survey! Asking people who already had a games console at home which one of the new XBOX360, PS3 or Nintendo Revolution they wanted, the following results came out. Unfortunately, as this is only a report about a survey, the figures are a bit rough.
Read the rest of this entry »

There’s been a survey of parents who carry their pre-school children on pedal bikes, and surprise, surprise, barely one in twenty actually makes their kid wear a helmet. The Japan Traffic Safety Association plan a campaign to persuade parents to protect their children. The gory details are as follows:

Sample size – 7,194 from all around the country, interviewed in February and March of this year around various creches and nurseries. The sex breakdown of the sample is implied to be all female. Note that the “Not clear” answer means that the mark on the answer sheet could not be read or was completed incorrectly, as this was a survey for people to fill out by themselves.

Q1: Have you (or anyone in your family) ridden your bike with a child on board?

Yes	59.8%
No	39.9%
Don’t know	0.2%
Not clear	0.1%

Q2: If you have, have you had an accident with a child on board within the last year? (Sample size=4302)

Yes	13.1%
No	86.6%
Don’t know	0.0%
Not clear	0.3%

Q3: If you have had an accident, how many times within the last year? (Sample size=564)

Once	70.4%
Twice	21.3%
Thrice	4.8%
Four times	1.2%
Five times or more	0.7%
Don’t know	0.7%
Not clear	0.9%

Q4: If you have had an accident, how many children riding were injured? If more than one accident in the last year, describe the more recent one. (Sample size=564)

One	82.6%
Two	16.1%
Three	0.2%
Four or more	0.0%
Not clear	1.1%

Q5: What were the ages of those injured in Q4? (Sample size=651 children)

0 years old	0.9%
1 year old	12.0%
2 years old	19.0%
3 years old	19.8%
4 years old	21.4%
5 years old	15.4%
6 years old	8.3%
7 years or older	0.5%
Don’t know	0.2%
Not clear	2.6%

Q6: Where were those injured in Q4 riding? (Sample size=651 children)

Child seat in front of the handlebars	13.8%
Child seat between handlebars and saddle	27.3%
Child seat behind saddle	48.2%
Non-child seat use luggage rack	5.4%
Piggy-backing on rider	0.5%
Don’t know	0.5%
Other	1.7%
Not clear	2.6%

Sadly, we don’t have a figure to say where children normally ride, in order to give some sort of idea if certain locations may lead to more accidents.

Q7: Which part of the body was most seriously injured? (Sample size=651 children)

Head	17.7%
Face	11.4%
Shoulders	0.2%
Chest	0.0%
Stomach	0.5%
Back	0.2%
Bottom	0.2%
Hands or arms	16.1%
Feet or legs	43.6%
Don’t know	3.2%
Other	3.8%
Not clear	3.2%

Q8: How serious was the injury? (Sample size=651 children)

Over two weeks in hospital	0.2%
One day to two weeks in hospital	0.2%
A number of out-patient/clinic visits	7.1%
One out-patient/clinc visit	6.0%
Didn’t visit doctor	64.8%
Don’t know	0.5%
Other	18.1%
Not clear	3.2%

Sadly, here there is no cross-referencing between location of injury and seriousness of injury.

Q9: Was the child wearing a helmet when injured? (Sample size=651 children)

Yes	1.2%
No	96.3%
Don’t know	0.0%
Not clear	2.5%

Q10: Whereabouts was the bike when the accident occurred? (Sample size=564 accidents)

When going across a step (kerb etc)	9.4%
When turning left or right	6.9%
When moving away from a stop	14.0%
When stopping	5.0%
When moving in another fashion	13.8%
When parking (engaging or disengaging stand, etc)	35.8%
When pushing bike	5.5%
Don’t know	0.7%
Other	7.4%
Not clear	1.4%

Q11: What was the cause of the accident? (Sample size=564 accidents)

Wheel hit a rut or obstacle avoidance caused loss of balance	56.0%
Collision with other bicycle or motorbike	3.5%
Collision with car	3.4%
Collision with pedestrian	0.7%
Collision with other object	2.5%
Child fell out of seat, etc	8.5%
Child got foot trapped in wheel, etc	9.0%
Don’t know	5.9%
Other	6.7%
Not clear	3.7%

Q12: Did you notify the police after the accident? (Sample size=564 accidents)

Yes	2.5%
No	95.0%
Don’t know	0.4%
Not clear	2.1%

Q13: If you did not notify the police after the accident, why not? (Sample size=536 accidents)

No serious injuries	59.0%
I didn’t think it was necessary to report bicycle accidents when riding	11.4%
I didn’t think it was necessary to report bicycle accidents when pushing or parking	10.3%
I didn’t think it was necessary to report bicycle accidents involving only myself	6.2%
It wasn’t on the public road, but private land at home, etc	6.9%
Don’t know	2.2%
Other	3.7%
Not clear	0.4%

Q14: If you answered Yes in Q1, do you use a child helmet when riding? (Sample size=4302 women)

Always use	1.2%
Sometimes use	1.4%
Never use	95.4%
Don’t know	0.1%
Not clear	1.9%

Q15: If you answered Always or Sometimes in Q14, for what reasons do you use a child helmet when riding? Multiple answers allowed. (Sample size=112 women)

There’s lots of accidents, and I’ve seen and heard information about this	52.7%
Family or friends recommended I use it	22.3%
Reduce risk, increase safety	18.8%
Experienced accidents or injury	8.0%
Family or friends have had an accident	7.1%
Obligatory abroad, obligation to parents	4.5%
Bicycle shop recommendation	3.6%
Children want to	2.7%
Requested to wear one riding to nursery, etc	0.9%
Municipality recommendation	0.9%
Nursery, creche, etc recommended it	0.0%
Don’t know	0.0%
Other	10.7%
Not clear	0.0%

Q15: If you answered Never in Q14, for what reasons do you not use a child helmet when riding? Multiple answers allowed. (Sample size=4105 women)

I didn’t know a helmet was needed when going to nursery, etc	41.8%
It’s troublesome	28.9%
It’s extra luggage	24.1%
I don’t know where they are sold	23.6%
I don’t ride so as to cause injury	16.7%
Children don’t want to wear it	15.3%
I don’t know how effective they are	13.1%
The price is high	10.3%
Frequency is low (ie won’t use it much?)	4.7%
Never thought of it or been aware of it	3.3%
Not seen many people around me wearing them	2.3%
Don’t know	4.2%
Other	10.0%
Not clear	0.2%

Q16: Within the last year, have you attended road saftey lectures for guardians or families? (Sample size=7194 women)

Yes	9.3%
No	87.0%
Don’t know	2.1%
Not clear	1.6%

Q17: What measures do you think would be effective to avoid serious accidents? (Sample size=7194 women)

Sufficient safety education for guardians	68.9%
Child helmets when riding two-up	48.6%
Flatten kerbs on pavements	47.8%
Accident risk warning posters	46.3%
Stricter road safety laws for bicycle riders	26.0%
Develop a bicycle that’s hard to fall off	25.6%
Other	5.9%
Don’t know	2.2%
Not clear	1.4%

Q18: Regarding making wearing of child helmets compulsory, what do you think should be done? (Sample size=7194 women)

Should make it compulsory immediately (to Q19)	31.2%
Too soon to make it compulsory (to Q20)	21.1%
I couldn’t accept it being compulsory (to Q21)	33.8%
Don’t know	12.6%
Not clear	1.3%

Q19: For what reasons should it be made compulsory immediately? (Sample size=2246 women)

Increasing the safety of children should be a priority	91.3%
If it’s not compulsory, no-one will use them	72.0%
I’ve seen and heard about lots of accidents occurring	26.9%
Other countries make it mandatory	5.4%
My family or friend’s children have been injured	5.1%
Don’t know	0.0%
Other	6.0%
Not clear	0.0%

Q20: For what reasons do you think it is too soon to make them compulsory? (Sample size=1520 women)

The level of awareness amongst guardians is not high enough to make it compulsory	84.5%
There are few shops selling them	28.8%
I don’t know by how much it would reduce head injury	27.5%
Price is high	26.3%
Limited range of models	18.6%
Other	13.2%
Don’t know	0.8%
Not clear	0.3%

Q21: For what reasons could you not accept them being compulsory? (Sample size=2428 women)

It is better if the guardian decides	69.3%
Children won’t like wearing them	35.5%
Extra luggage to carry	31.3%
Takes money	29.5%
Even if used, I don’t think head injuries will decrease	16.4%
Other	15.7%
Don’t know	1.9%
Not clear	0.5%

Q22: How often do you ride with a child on board? (Sample size=7194 women)

Just about every day	20.2%
Three or four times a week	7.6%
One or two times a week	8.0%
Two or three times a month	9.0%
Almost never ride together	10.5%
Almost never ride a bike at all	43.4%
Not clear	1.4%

With just a week to go to the election, for the proportional representation vote, 80% of the unaffiliated voters are still to decide, according to the Asahi Shimbun’s poll. First, the basic numbers:

Q: Which party do you want to vote for in the proportional representation vote?

LDP	23%
DPJ	16%
New Komeito	6%
Communists	4%
SDP	3%
People’s New Party, New Party Nippon	0%
Not decided	38%

Q: (For those with no party affiliation only) Which party do you want to vote for in the proportional representation vote?

LDP	7%
DPJ	8%
New Komeito	2%
SDP	1%
Not decided	67%
No answer/don’t know	15%

Still a lot of votes to play for here! On another note, Post Office privatisation has dropped 11% to 39% as being an important topic, perhaps because everyone’s got sick to death hearing about it.

First off is Trivia no Izumi (“The Fountain of Trivia”), probably my favourite program on Japanese TV as it deadpans its way through often very silly trivia, with many exceptionally-well conceived little films to explain the stories. There’s a very famous book and comic book and web page and film and TV series and cuddly toy and kitchen sink, The Train Man (Densha Otoko), which traces the story (probably true, on the whole) of a guy after he helps a woman being hassled by a drunk. So, Trivia no Izumi decided to put the story to the test, by setting up a situation where a typical Akihabara geek encounters a young woman being harrassed by some middle-aged guy. So, all these pasty-faced weeds encountered a woman being verbally abused, and we got to watch as the guys tried to screw up enough courage to intervene. Much to my surprise, but then again, since they all had no doubt seen Densha Otoko and knew the story, maybe I shouldn’t have been surprised, of the 100 guys (including one in a Sailor Moon-like suit!) that encountered the situation, 69 intervened to try to protect the woman. Rather a heartening result, I thought!

Next stat off the telly was from London Boots. It’s too complicated to explain, but basically they get 10 male comedians (mostly) and get 100 random women between 18 and 45 to rank them in various categories.
This week’s show was to select who looks to be of the least calibre (or least classy). The “winner” was GEKIDAN Hitori (a stage name that roughly translates to “one-man theatre troupe”, and who, by sheer coincidence, seems to appear in the TV version of Densha Otoko!) and amongst the reasons that people gave for choosing him, was that he looked like the sort of person who’d post anonymously to 2 Channel with a positive review of himself. When presented with this opinion on the show, he did in fact admit to making a posting just like that on another star’s home page!

And now to the point of this post – the comment about pumping yourself anonymously (ooh-er missus) rung true a bit with me – I must say I have been tempted to do that with this blog at the various blog aggregating sites. But no, I want to see how, or even if this blog can float up the rankings without resorting to cheap tricks.

This page at HotLink (or whatever the official English title is) has the results of a survey that seems very dubious to me.

Q1: Do you understand “blog”?

Yes	92.2%
No	7.8%

Oops, alarm bells are ringing! According to The Register, around the start of the year 62% of USA-based internet users did not know what the term meant.
I therefore suggest that this survey is not based on a random selection of users, but somehow heavily biased towards bloggers. Let’s look at the sample used then.

Sex:

Male	49.5%
Female	50.5%

Occupation:

Employee	47.5%
Self-Employed	4.9%
Full-time housewife	23.3%
Part-timer	11.7%
Student	2.9%
Others	9.7%

Age:

20-29	28.2%
30-39	37.0%
40-49	21.3%
50-59	11.6%
60+	1.9%

Oops, a definitely young person oriented survey, with perhaps a larger than average number of employees. With that pinch of salt taken, let us proceed with the other questions.

Q2: Have you ever used a blog-only search engine?

Yes	22.3%
No	77.7%

Q3: Do you think you’ll try using a blog-only search engine in the future?

I want to try to use one	54.4%
I don’t think I want to use one	45.6%

Q4: Have you made use of blogs or net-based word-of-mouth to gather information?

Yes	61.2%
No	38.8%

Q5: For what purpose have you used blogs or net-based word-of-mouth to gather information?

Companies	14.3%
Products	68.3%
Politics	4.8%
Arts (includes actors?)	39.7%
Current affairs	23.8%
Business information	11.1%
Music, etc entertainment information	31.7%
Others	23.8%
No answer	0.0%

Q6: Regarding your answers for Q5, which blogs or net-based word-of-mouth gathered information was usable (highly trustworthy)?

Companies	7.9%
Products	52.4%
Politics	3.2%
Arts (includes actors?)	14.3%
Current affairs	12.7%
Business information	7.9%
Music, etc entertainment information	15.9%
Others	22.2%
No answer	0.0%

Looks like people have major trust issues with the web, which is good, I suppose, since there’s a lot of nonsense out there! It’s interesting that the others category information was taken to be the most reliable – I wonder what that was?

Q7: In the coming general election do you think blogs will have influence?

They will	52.4%
They won’t	47.6%

Q8: In relation to the coming general election, do you think you want to consult blogs or net-based word-of-mouth?

I want to consult it	2.9%
If it’s valid information I want to consult it	62.1%
I won’t consult it much	14.6%
I won’t consult it at all	20.4%

Q9: In the future, do you think blogs or net-based word-of-mouth will influence elections or public opinion-forming?

Yes	72.8%
No	27.2%

Q10: In the future, do you think blogs will become an effective means of information gathering?

Yes	84.5%
No	15.5%

Sigh, once again blogs are being overestimated by the general public. I share The Register’s disdain for them as an effective medium for anything other than massaging the ego of the writer, especially when opinions are being expressed. The first thing I always do when reading a new blog is wonder what is the writer’s angle. Most blogs end up in an incentious ring of mutual back-slapping and cross-linking, where truth is represented by the number of hangers-on you can attract, all hoping to bask in some reflected glory. This ring of cross-linking also has the effect of gumming up Google, promoting ideas not based on the quality of the content but the quantity of the fan-boys.