Comments on: Japanese juvenile delinquency http://whatjapanthinks.com/2011/02/09/japanese-juvenile-delinquency/ From kimono to keitai; research Japanese facts and figures through translated opinion polls and surveys. Thu, 10 Apr 2014 22:29:01 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.2 By: Realize English http://whatjapanthinks.com/2011/02/09/japanese-juvenile-delinquency/comment-page-1/#comment-243962 Sat, 12 Feb 2011 02:00:57 +0000 http://whatjapanthinks.com/?p=3716#comment-243962 What surprises me is how most people feel family is responsible for preventing it, not schools.
The impression I got was that the onus was on the schools but I guess it isn’t so!

]]> By: Cameron Smith http://whatjapanthinks.com/2011/02/09/japanese-juvenile-delinquency/comment-page-1/#comment-243953 Thu, 10 Feb 2011 07:58:03 +0000 http://whatjapanthinks.com/?p=3716#comment-243953 @RMilner What you say is true only if nothing has changed in how the recording happens. However, a fall can be an artefact of a change in reporting procedures or enforcement policy – or simply a fall in police staffing levels. There are lots of reasons why the police data may show an artificial fall. The question is – are there any reasons for the difference between “real” and recorded levels to have widened? I don’t know of any. (Although the high measured levels of two decades ago make me open to the possibility that there may have been changes in counting since then).

]]> By: RMilner http://whatjapanthinks.com/2011/02/09/japanese-juvenile-delinquency/comment-page-1/#comment-243951 Thu, 10 Feb 2011 06:15:01 +0000 http://whatjapanthinks.com/?p=3716#comment-243951 It doesn’t really matter if the police under- or over-report crime. A time series of data gives a chart that can be analysed using regression and will show trends nonetheless.

]]> By: Cameron Smith http://whatjapanthinks.com/2011/02/09/japanese-juvenile-delinquency/comment-page-1/#comment-243945 Wed, 09 Feb 2011 09:36:39 +0000 http://whatjapanthinks.com/?p=3716#comment-243945 The latest figures I can find are to 2008, but it appears that juvenile crime has been *decreasing* since a peak in 2002, and much faster than any demographic shift could explain. I’m not surprised about the perception of rising crime – it’s fed by the media. Things appear to have been much worse about twenty or so years ago.

Stats to 2008 are here: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/1431-25.htm
and a 2006 government white paper here: http://hakusyo1.moj.go.jp/en/55/nfm/mokuji.html
which contains this handy graph: http://hakusyo1.moj.go.jp/en/55/image/image/h004001001003e.jpg which shows rates as a percentage of the overall age group.

Of course, these are events as recorded by police, which will under-report the true figures. However, I don’t know of any reason why this measure should show an artifical fall over time in juvenile delinquency measures, so it does look as if things aren’t as bad as people think. This is par for the course across many countries – a persistent belief that crime is worse now than before, particularly when it comes to children being victims or criminals.

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