世論 What Japan Thinks

It’s been quite a while since I’ve looked at a political opinion poll, so with the recent changes at the top with Junichiro Koizumi being replaced by Shinzo Abe, and with North Korea being a tad unreasonable at the moment, I think this would be a good time to present a translation of a survey of public opinion by the Yomiuri Shimbun on the new cabinet and the recent trip to China and Korea.

First, the basic sample size information: on the 14th and 15th of this month, in 250 locations all over Japan, 3,000 people were randomly sampled for face-to-face interviews. 1,768, or 58.9% of the original sample, agreed to take part in the survey.

Approval rating for the new cabinet was 70.0%, the third-highest on record; first being Koizumi’s cabinet in May 2001 with 85.5% approval, then Hosokawa’s in September 1993 with 71.9% approval. 18.0% disapproved, leaving 12.0% undecided.

When asked why they approved (up to two reasons could be selected), just over half (52%) said it was because of his fresh image, followed by 29% having expectations for his foreign policies and 26% who rate his political stance. Comparing the above with a previous survey at the start of Koizumi’s premiership, at that time just over half (54%) rated the old cabinet’s political stance, whilst only 4% had expectations for his foreign policies.

As to what Shinzo Abe’s priorities should be, the top selection was reform of pensions, medical fees and other social security issues, with 59% suggesting this, then 51% wanted focus on the economy and job creation, then 45% on the North Korea problem.

Looking at which party people supported, 44.2% chose Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the second highest rating for them ever, just 0.3 percentage points behind when Miyazawa was Prime Minister in September 1992. By way of comparison, Koizumi started off with 37.0% support for the LDP, reaching a peak of 43.7% last September.

For the Democratic Party of Japan, DPJ, they dropped 4.7 percentage points down from last month to just 9.8%, their lowest rating for one year and four months. Note that there is always a huge pool of don’t knows or uncommited voters in these polls.

Regarding North Korea, when asked if they thought it was a threat, over four in five, or 81%, thought the country was either extremely or quite threatening. Compared to when North Korea launched a number of missiles in July of this year, the perception of threat has increased by four percentage points. Regarding the ban on North Korean ships entering Japanese ports and the banning of all other imports, etc, 88% either supported it or were ambivalent, and just 9% opposed it. In addition, 90% supported the United Nations Security Council resolution 1718 on North Korea, with only 5% opposed.

When asked if Japan should have the ability to strike back at an attacking base, 53% disagreed, whilst 41% agreed. Compared with when the same question was asked in August, Japan has become just two percentage points more hawkish.

As for Prime Minister Abe’s discussions with the Chinese and South Korean heads of state, 82% had a positive evaluation of them versus just 11% with negative views. Almost two-thirds (63%) thought that relations with these countries will improve in the future, versus 29% thinking they will not. As for the Yasukuni issue, Abe hasn’t stated whether or not he will attend. 58% felt this was an appropriate stance, versus 37% thinking it was inappropriate.