世論 What Japan Thinks

Looking at reports of the exit polls we can begin to build up a picture of what really happened at the ballot boxes. The main unknowns in the run-up to the election were the undecided and the unaffiliated voters, about 40% and 45% (although of course there would be a lot of people in both camps!) respectively going into the last week of campaigning.

Of those surveyed, 20.2% described themselves as unaffiliated voters. From that group, 32.6% voted for the LDP versus 38.2% for the DPJ in the proportional representation vote, and 37.4% versus 45.5% in the direct elections.

In the last lower house election exit poll, unaffiliates split 21.4% versus 56.5% in the PR vote, and 27.0% versus 53.0% for the direct seats, LDP versus DPJ.

Note, one reason for the votes for the main parties being higher in the direct election is that not all of the minor parties put candidates up in all constituencies. Unfortunately this report does not suggest any reasons for the change in support since the last time.

New Komeito supporters voted 72.3% for the LDP in the direct elections, showing that in seats where there is no New Komeito candidate (over 90% of them) the electoral pact is still going strong.

In the 33 seats where the Post Office privatisation rebels stood, LDP supporters preferred the official candidate, 55.1% versus 33.4% for the rebels, although the rebels still won in half the seats. Previous opinion polls had indicated the official candidates were on 41% versus 33%, indicating that the undecided had chosen to back Koizumi’s choice.