From the Tokyo Shimbun, I see the following opinion poll has been published.
3,600 people from all over the country were interviewed by telephone for the poll. The question was “Which party’s candidate will you vote for?”
For the LDP, 43.4% said they would be voting for them in the single-member constituency vote, around the same percentage as in the last lower house election in 2003. In the proportional representation race, 40.9% said they would, up from 35.0% in the last election.
For the DPJ, 23.4% will vote for them in the single-member constituencies, and 24.2% in the proportional representation vote. This second figure is down over 13 percentage points from the last election.
For the other parties, New Komeito is up in the single-member constituencies, but drastically down in the proportional representation vote. The communists and the SDP are down in both votes. The People’s
New Party and New Party Nippon register less than 1% in both votes.
10-20% are still to decide which party to support in both votes.
Next, 51.0% want an LDP-led adminstration versus 34.8% wanting the DPJ. This preference for the DPJ is greatly increased (compared to what, it is does not say!)
53.9% support the present (well, ex-) cabinet, versus 39.0% who do not. As for the upper house rejecting the Post Office privatisation bill, 51.1% said it wasn’t a good thing, versus 38.6% who approved of it.
Significant differences between male and female opinion were noted.
49.7% of men want an LDP-led adminstration versus 39.1% wanting the DPJ, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. For women, 52.3% want the LDP versus 30.4% for the DPJ, a difference of 21.9 percentage points,
clearly indicating that the DPJ find it difficult to attract support from women.
This is a very detailed survey, but again there seems to be a lack of analysis of the New Komeito position (can you tell I’m an NK supporter by my repeated harping on about them?), and the electoral pact between them and the LDP. I should track down some historical opinion polls to find out how the opinion polls tracked the NK position versus the actual result last election.