世論 What Japan Thinks

The last poll was pretty useless, so here’s a better one from Nikkei Net. This one has a reader’s panel from which participants are randomly selected, so still not as good as we can get, and will probably over-represent the ABC1 professional class.

Performed between 20th and 22nd August 2005, 988 respondents.

Q1: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet

?

I support them	49%
I don’t support them	39%
Don’t know or can’t answer	12%

Q1SQ1: (If answered with “I support them”) Why do you support them? Multiple choice answer.

Because it’s the LDP cabinet	17%
Good policies	23%
International perspective	14%
Leadership strength	45%
Sense of stability	13%
Trustworthy character	20%
Clean	13%
Other reason	7%
Don’t know or can’t answer	4%

Q1SQ2: (If answered with “I don’t support them”) Why don’t you support them? Multiple choice answer.

Because it’s the LDP cabinet	17%
Bad policies	40%
No international perspective	17%
Lack of leadership strength	15%
No sense of stability	19%
Not trustworthy character	32%
Not clean	6%
Other reason	6%
Don’t know or can’t answer	5%

Q2: Which party do you support?

LDP	38%
DPJ	13%
New Komeito	3%
Communists	2%
SDP	2%
People’s New Party	1%
Others	0%
No party	35%
Don’t know or can’t answer	5%

Q2SQ: (if answered with “No party” or “Don’t know/can’t answer”) Which party do you look favourably upon?

LDP	18%
DPJ	15%
New Komeito	2%
Communists	2%
SDP	3%
People’s New Party	1%
Others	1%
No party	43%
Don’t know or can’t answer	14%

Adding the two answers together:

LDP	46%
DPJ	19%
New Komeito	4%
Communists	3%
SDP	3%
People’s New Party	1%
Others	1%
No party	17%
Don’t know or can’t answer	6%

Q3: Which of the following topics are important to you in this election?

Economic measures	29%
Fiscal reform	23%
Tax reform	26%
Adminstrative reform and deregulation	10%
Diplomatic and security concerns	16%
Pension and social security concerns	57%
Employment measures	19%
Education reform	19%
Political reform	15%
Post Office reform	29%
Country and local tax reform	15%
Regional development	14%
Constitution issues	9%
Environmental issues	18%
Law and order measures	15%
Others	1%
Don’t know or can’t answer	11%

Q4: Which one of the following is important to you when voting.

Character of the candidate	19%
How the candidate appeals to you	39%
The charm of each party’s leader	9%
Each party’s manifesto	20%
Don’t know or can’t answer	13%

Q5: Who do you plan to vote for in this election?

LDP	37%
DPJ	16%
New Komeito	3%
Communists	2%
SDP	2%
People’s New Party	1%
Others	1%
Don’t know or can’t answer	38%

Q6: Koizumi has not authorised to stand those LDP members that voted against Post Office privatisation in the last parliament, and is recommending supporting rival candidates. What do you think of this?

I support Koizumi	40%
Rival candidates is going too far	45%
Don’t know or can’t answer	15%

Q7: Regarding the Post Office reforms, from the viewpoint of Post Office reform, which opinion do you support?

Privatisation according to Koizumi’s opinion	44%
Keep public as per the DPJ’s opinion, and reduce the scope of savings and life insurance	22%
Keep it public just as it is	18%
Other	0%
Don’t know or can’t answer	16%

Q8: This election is also being fought around economic revitalisation. Regarding raising the consumption tax rate, what do you think?

Thinking of the current economic state, we cannot stop it	16%
We cannot stop due to the condition of pension funding etc	29%
We should maintain the current rate	33%
We should get rid of consumption tax	9%
Other	1%
Don’t know or can’t answer	11%

Q9: Each party’s manifesto contains various foreign policy topics. Which foreign policy themes should take priority?

Strengthen the alliance with the USA	14%
Improve relations with China, South Korea and other neighbouring countries	50%
Getting a permanent seat at the UN Security Council	13%
Resolve the Northern Territories problem	16%
Resolve the North Korean nuclear and kidnapping problems	55%
Rapid return of the SDF from Iraq	27%
Global environmental issues	38%
Others	0%
Don’t know or can’t answer	13%

The demographic breakdown of the respondants is as follows:

Sex

Male	44%
Female	56%
Unclear	0%

Age

20-29	9%
30-39	16%
40-49	18%
50-59	20%
60-69	18%
70-79	17%
Refused to answer	2%

Employment status

Farmer	3%
Employee (private, public or teacher)	46%
Full-time housewife	21%
Self-employed	10%
Student	1%
Unemployed (or retired)	16%
Refused to answer	2%

Comparing with the previous poll, you can see that the LDP:DPJ balance is 3:1 here rather than almost 1:1 in the other self-selecting poll. From other reports on TV, this seems to be a far more accurate reflection on the real situation. New Komeito is very low, but their strengths are people embarrassed to answer in public, their pester power at getting the vote out, and voting alliances with the LDP, so expect a figure closer to 15% once the votes are counted.

I am surprised about Post Office privatisation, but in my defence I know very little on the topic, and what I have heard has mostly come from a left-wing-leaning (US-style knee-jerkers; being left-wing myself, I find the US use of the term embarrassing) mailing list I am on.